GTM was presented at AGU Fall Meeting 2016 in San Francisco

NH52A-04: The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk.

Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Finn Løvholt
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute

Hong Kie Thio
AECOM

Carl Bonnevie Harbitz
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute

Jascha Polet
California State Polytechnic University Pomona

Stefano Lorito
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Roberto Basili
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Manuela Volpe
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Fabrizio Romano
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Jacopo Selva
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Alessio Piatanesi
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Gareth Davies
Geoscience Australia

Jonathan Griffin
Geoscience Australia

Maria Ana Baptista
Universidade de Lisboa

Rachid Omira
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera

Andrey Y. Babeyko
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

William L Power
GNS Science

Mario Salgado Gálvez
CIMNE

Joern Behrens
University of Hamburg

Ahmet C Yalciner
Middle East Technical University

Utku Kanoglu
Middle East Technical University

Onur Pekcan
Middle East Technical University

Stephanie Ross
USGS Western Regional Offices Menlo Park

Tom Parsons
USGS Western Regional Offices Menlo Park

Randall J LeVeque
University of Washington

Frank I Gonzalez
University of Washington Seattle Campus

Raphael Paris
Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans

Andreas Shäfer
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Miquel Canals
Universitat de Barcelona

Stuart A Fraser
Fraser Disaster Risk Consulting Ltd

Yong Wei
NOAA Seattle

Robert Weiss
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Filippo Zaniboni
University of Bologna

Gerassimos A Papadopoulos
National Observatory of Athens

Irina Didenkulova
Tallinn University of Technology

Ocal Necmioglu
Kandilli Observatory

Anawat Suppasri
International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University

Patrick J Lynett
University of Southern California

Mohammad Mokhtari
Institute of and Earthquake Engineering and Seismology

Mathilde Sørensen
University of Bergen

Christa von Hillebrandt-Andrade
NOAA Boulder

Ignacio Aguirre Ayerbe
University of Cantabria

Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga
University of Cantabria

Serge Guillas
University College London

Jorge Macías
University of Malaga