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TsuMaMoS 2014. Mathematical Modelling for Tsunami Early Warning Systems. An International Conference. - Okal Necmioglu - Abstract

Okal Necmioglu - Abstract

Establishing a Tsunami Warning System in the Eastern Mediterranean: Challenges and outlook

O. Necmioglu (1), N. Meral Ozel (1), A.C. Yalciner (2), D. Kalafat (1), M. Yilmazer (1), M. Comoglu (1), C. Ozer (1), C. Gurbuz (1), A. Pınar (1) and M. Erdik (1)

(1) Boğaziçi University - Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Istanbul – Turkey

(2) Middle East Technical University, Civil Engineering Department, Ocean Engineering Research Center, Ankara, Turkey


Eastern Mediterranean and its connected Seas have been affected by tsunamis during the observation period over 3500 years. The possible occurrence of a tsunami in the region may lead to considerable damage, especially considering the densely populated coastal areas, infrastructure and harbours. Coastal cities cover less than 5% of the total surface area of Turkey, but populated with over 30 million inhabitants under constant growth. Continued urbanization and tourist development are additional elements of the increased exposure to tsunami hazard. Hence, Turkey joined and contributed to the initiative of a Tsunami Warning System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas region (ICG/NEAMTWS) at its very beginning in 2005 through a national collaboration coordinated by the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) through the establishment of a 24/7 National Tsunami Warning System (NTWC-TR). KOERI officially declared its Interim Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (CTWP) Status covering Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas as of 1 July 2012 to the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) Secretariat in June 2012. The system has been successfully utilized during the Communication Test Exercises (CTE) and Tsunami Exercise (NEAMWave12) of NEAMTWS. Duty officers of the NTWC-TR perform internal tests of the Tsunami Warning System on a daily basis based on pre-determined set of scenarios. In addition, regular CTEs with other CTWPs are conducted. This presentation will provide a background of the operational activities of the NTWC-TR but will mainly focus on the challenges concerning but not limited to deployment of sea level monitoring systems, real-time seismic and sea-level data availability and data exchange between CTWPs, real-time tsunami hazard assessment based on the understanding earthquake rupture mechanisms and corresponding sea level disturbance and subsequent potential tsunami generation, NEAMTWS system architectural design for a CTWP, vulnerability analysis, awareness programs and other societal and political challenges.